AUDJPY Technical Analysis Forecast

The AUD and JPY symbols on top of the price chart with a background of landmarks of the Australia and Japan
.24 Apr 2024
author avatar image Andreas Thalassinos

Table of Contents

Briefing on AUDJPY

  • Title: AUDJPY Technical Analysis Forecast
  • Financial instrument: AUDJPY
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Session: Tokyo
  • Trend: Up
  • Momentum: Up
  • Trend Confirmation: Exponential Moving Average(EMA), Momentum Oscillator, Moving Average Convergence/Divergence(MACD)
  • Support Levels: 100.250, 99.012, 98.010, 96.772
  • Resistance Levels: 101.252, 102.490, 105.725
  • Trading Strategy: Buy on Breakouts

High Impact Economic Events

  • Wednesday, 04:30 am (GMT+0): CPI q/q (AUD) 
  • Wednesday, 04:30 am (GMT+0): CPI y/y (AUD)
  • Wednesday, 04:30 am (GMT+0): Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (AUD)
  • Wednesday, 03:30 pm (GMT+0): Advance GDP q/q (USD)
  • Wednesday, 03:30 pm (GMT+0): Unemployment Claims(USD)
  • Friday, Tentative: BOJ Policy Rate(JPY)   
  • Friday, 03:30 pm (GMT+0): Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Trend Analysis of AUDJPY

AUDJPY price chart with pivot points support and resistance. Also, oscillators and indicators are attached to show the uptrend

The AUD/JPY currency pair has been in an uptrend since December 19, 2023, when it formed a technical reversal pattern to the upside after reaching a daily low of 93.727. Subsequently, the price formed a chart reversal known as a failure swing. The trough at 94.553 failed to move lower than the previous trough at 93.727. Instead, the price exceeded the peak at 96.146 and, a few sessions later, moved above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average. At the same time, the Momentum oscillator emerged above its 100-baseline mark, confirming the upward bias. 

The AUDJPY pair registered a new all-time high for 2024, above the exchange rate of 100.808. This recent price action suggests a continuation of the positive sentiment in the market, with a possible correction to the downside as indicated by the negative divergence between the price and the Moning Average Convergence/Divergence.  

Indicators and Oscillators Analysis

The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the currency pair is at a level above 70, indicating that it has entered an extreme overbought zone. However, this also suggests that the upward trend is likely to continue. Traders should exercise caution and not rely solely on the RSI as an indicator, as it may not be entirely dependable. 

In addition, the Exponential Moving Average and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) support the upward movement. This is shown by the fact that the prices are trading above the Moving Average line, and the MACD is above the zero baseline. Furthermore, the Stochastic oscillator has also moved above the 80-overbought territory, and the MACD oscillator is above its signal line, indicating a potential continuation of the rally.

Key Resistance Levels for AUDJPY

According to the current market situation, the AUDJPY pair is under the control of the bulls, and it is expected that the corresponding price will continue to rise. The initial resistance level is seen at 101.252, and further progress may result in the crossing of this level. If this happens, the next potential level at 102.490 could come into play. The violation of this level may indicate additional potential for gains, and the next significant resistance level is estimated to be 105.725. It is essential to keep a close eye on these support levels to determine the future direction of the pair.

R1–>101.252

R2–>102.490

R3–>105.725

Key Support Levels for AUDJPY

If the market falls and the bears take control, there is a possibility of a downward correction that could result in losses in the future. However, there are several levels of support that may arise. The first support level is estimated to be around 100.250. Subsequently, support is projected to be witnessed at 99.012 and 98.010, respectively. These support levels could pose a challenge to the market’s downward momentum. Nevertheless, with careful consideration of market trends and the use of strict risk management tools, it is possible to navigate these obstacles and mitigate risks.

S1–> 100.250

S2–>99.012

S3–>98.010

S4–>96.772

Trading Strategy for AUDJPY

Based on technical analysis, traders may be interested in adding to their positions when the price of the asset breaks through the recent resistance level of 101.015 

On the other hand, for traders who are more aggressive, there may be short-term buying opportunities when the price dips towards support levels. It is recommended to use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. 

If the bullish momentum continues and the candlesticks close above the Upper Bollinger Band, indicating a continuation of the uptrend, traders may want to take advantage of the rising prices by opening long positions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the technical analysis of the AUDJPY suggests a bullish outlook with the possibility of a short-term correction to the downside, with the AUDJPY testing critical levels. Traders should closely monitor price action around key support and resistance zones and relevant technical indicators to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively in the current market environment. 

author avatar image
Andreas Thalassinos

Experienced educator with a demonstrated history of working in the financial services industry. Skilled in Technical Analysis, Market Risk, Asset Management, Stock Market, and Trading Systems. Strong professional with a MSTA by Society of Technical Analysts (UK), CFTe and MFTA focused in Master of Financial Technical Analysis from International Federation of Technical Analysts (USA).