AUDUSD Eyeing Higher Levels

AUDUSD eyeing higher levels
.08 Apr 2024
author avatar image Andreas Thalassinos

Table of Contents

Briefing on AUDUSD

  • Title: AUDUSD Eyeing Higher Levels
  • Financial instrument: AUDUSD
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Session: London
  • Trend: Up
  • Trend Confirmation: Exponential Moving Average(EMA), Moving Average Convergence/Divergence(MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI)
  • Momentum: MACD above its Signal Line
  • Support Levels: 0.64807, 0.64425, 0.63618
  • Resistance Levels: 0.66189, 0.66673, 0.67764
  • Trading Strategy: Buy on Breakouts, Buy on Dips

High Impact Economic Events

  • Wednesday, 02:00 am (GMT+0): Official Cash Rate (NZD)
  • Wednesday, 12:30 pm (GMT+0): Core CPI m/m (USD)
  • Wednesday, 01:45 pm (GMT+0): Overnight Rate (CAD)
  • Thursday, 12:15 pm (GMT+0): Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
  • Thursday, 12:30 pm (GMT+0): Core PPI m/m (USD)
  • Thursday, 12:30 pm (GMT+0): PPI m/m (USD)
  • Thursday, 12:30 pm (GMT+0): Unemployment Claims (USD)
  • Thursday, 05:01 pm (GMT+0): 30-y Bond Auction (USD)
  • Friday, 06:00 am (GMT+0): GDP m/m (GBP)
  • Friday, 02:00 pm (GMT+0): Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Trend Analysis for AUDUSD

AUDUSD April 8

The exchange rate between the Australian dollar (AUD) and the United States dollar (USD) has exhibited a significant upward move since April 1. After reaching a daily trough of 0.64807, a Japanese candlestick reversal to the upside, commonly referred to as a Bullish Harami, was observed. This reversal pattern was characterized by a long, bearish candle followed by a smaller one, which paved the way for a bullish trajectory. During this period, the bulls were able to pull the price higher to 0.66189 and established the exchange rate above the dynamic support of the 50-period Moving Average.

This recent price action suggests a bullish sentiment in the market, with a possible correction to the downside. These developments indicate that further upward momentum may be in store for the Aussie exchange rate. However, the bullish trend may be subject to correction in the near term.

Indicators and Oscillators Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering above its 50 baseline, indicating that the pair has moved to an upward trajectory. However, traders should exercise caution, as RSI alone may not be a reliable indicator. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands suggest widening volatility as the Upper and Lower Bands diverge in prices. At the same time, the Middle Band serves as immediate support to any potential downside correction. The Exponential Moving Average and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) also confirm the upward movement. In particular, prices are trading above the Moving Average line, and MACD is above the zero baseline. On the other hand, the Stochastics crossed in the neutral zone. Moreover, the MACD oscillator indicates a bullish momentum, with the MACD above the Signal line. 

On the other hand, the Momentum oscillator remains below its 100 baseline.

Key Support Levels for AUDUSD

In the current market scenario, the bulls hold the reins of the AUDUSD pair, and the exchange rate will likely continue to rise. The initial support level is seen at 0.64807 US dollars, and a further decline may lead to a breach of this level. If that happens, the next support level at 0.64425 could come into play. The violation of this level may indicate further potential for a downturn, and the next significant support level is estimated to be 0.63618. It is crucial to keep a close watch on these support levels to gauge the future direction of the Aussie.

S1–>0.64807

S2–>0.64425

S3–>0.63618

Key Resistance Levels for AUDUSD

If the bulls maintain control of the market, a potential correction to the upside may yield gains in the future. However, resistance is likely to arise at various levels. The initial resistance level is estimated to be approximately 0.66189; subsequently, resistance is projected to be witnessed at 0.66673 and 0.67764, respectively. These levels of resistance could pose a challenge to the market’s upward momentum. Nonetheless, with careful consideration of market trends and strict risk management tools, it is possible to navigate these obstacles and mitigate risks.

R1–> 0.66189

R2–>0.66673

R3–>0.67764

Trading Strategy for AUDUSD

Based on the technical analysis, traders may consider adding to their positions above the recent high of 0.66189, which was marked on April 4.

On the other hand, aggressive traders may explore short-term buying opportunities on dips toward support levels and the Middle Band, with tight stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Additionally, if the bullish momentum persists and candlesticks close above the Upper Bollinger Band, indicating a continuation of the uptrend, traders may take advantage of the rising prices with long positions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the technical analysis of the AUDUSD suggests a bullish outlook with the possibility of a short-term correction to the downside, with the Aussie testing critical levels. Traders should closely monitor price action around key support and resistance zones and relevant technical indicators to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively in the current market environment. 

author avatar image
Andreas Thalassinos

Experienced educator with a demonstrated history of working in the financial services industry. Skilled in Technical Analysis, Market Risk, Asset Management, Stock Market, and Trading Systems. Strong professional with a MSTA by Society of Technical Analysts (UK), CFTe and MFTA focused in Master of Financial Technical Analysis from International Federation of Technical Analysts (USA).