Major Currencies Week in Review of April 15-19

Introduction – Major Currencies Week in Review of April 15-19

In this weekly review, we’ll take a look at the major currency pairs and their performance over the past week. As global economic conditions continue to evolve, currency markets remain volatile. 

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw a mixed performance this week. The euro initially gained ground against the US dollar, driven by positive economic data from the Eurozone. However, concerns over rising inflation and the potential for the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy limited the euro’s gains. Traders will closely watch the ECB’s upcoming meeting for any hints on policy changes.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• The EUR/USD pair has been in a downtrend since March 8.
• The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.06901.
• Support: 1.0601.

Moving Averages

• The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the price.
• The 200-day MA is above the 50-day MA

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 

• The RSI is specific RSI 37.41.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair remained range-bound this week. Safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen kept the pair in check despite positive economic indicators from the US. The ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to influence the yen’s strength.  Market participants are closely monitoring the possibility of the Japanese government intervening in the currency market, as well as the release of Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation data. The outcome of these events may have a significant impact on the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• The USD/JPY pair has been in a range since April 16.
• The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 154.785.
• Support: 153.588.

Moving Averages

• The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the price.
• The 200-day MA is below the 50-day MA

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 

• The RSI is specific RSI 82.52

GBP/USD

A confluence of factors influenced last week’s GBP/USD exchange rate. The US Dollar strengthened on the back of robust economic data, including lower-than-expected jobless claims, suggesting a resilient labor market. This was compounded by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, hinting at a possible delay in interest rate cuts, which bolstered the USD. On the other side of the pair, the Pound Sterling faced pressure amid a cautious market sentiment towards the UK’s economic outlook. Technical analysis also played a role; the GBP/USD pair’s dip below a critical support level signaled a bearish trend, adding to the downward pressure on the Pound. Collectively, these elements contributed to a week of defensive trading for the GBP/USD, with the currency pair showing a tendency to weaken against a backdrop of a strengthening US Dollar.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• The GBP/USD pair has been in a downtrend since March 8.
• The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.24985.
• Support: 1.23666.

Moving Averages

• The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the price.
• The 200-day MA is below the 50-day MA

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 

• The RSI is specific RSI 22.09.

USD/CHF

Economic reports, central bank policy expectations, and market sentiment impacted the USD/CHF currency pair. Key economic indicators from the US, such as retail sales and industrial production, may have influenced the USD’s strength. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s financial stability reports and any changes in domestic policy could have swayed the CHF. Additionally, global risk appetite, driven by geopolitical developments, likely affected the safe-haven status of the Swiss Franc.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• The USD/CHF pair has been in an uptrend since December 28.
• The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.91520.
• Support: 0.90109.

Moving Averages

• The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the price.
• The 200-day MA is below the 50-day MA

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 

• The RSI is specific RSI 52.90.

AUD/USD

The Australian Employment Change data was released on April 18, 2024, revealing a decrease of 6.6K in the number of employed individuals. This unexpected turn of events had a negative impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD) and affected the market sentiments leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• The AUD/USD pair has been in a downtrend since April 9.
• The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.64931.
• Support: 0.63622.

Moving Averages

• The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the price.
• The 200-day MA is above the 50-day MA

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 

• The RSI is specific RSI 33.10.

Conclusion

Major currency pairs remain sensitive to economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments. Traders should stay informed and study the price chart for hints. As always, risk management is crucial in the forex market.